
There has been talk going around that Iran might be the next target of the Bush administration. Recently,
Bush has stated that "Iran's active pursuit of technology that could lead to nuclear weapons threatens to put a region already known for instability and violence under the shadow of a nuclear holocaust."
Conservative think tank the Heritage foundation also recently ran a war game scenario on an Iranian invasion and found
a difficult yet attainable outcome to a war with the country.
But is the rhetoric coming out of Ahmadinejad's mouth really to be a smoking gun of Iranian pursuits? According to Ray Takeyh, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and author of
Hidden Iran: Paradox and Power in the Islamic Republic,
it's not that clear cut.
TWO YEARS ago this month, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the little-known mayor of Tehran, was inaugurated as president of Iran. Since then, his fiery rhetoric and combative style have provoked hyperbolic claims of Iranian peril from the Bush administration and its allies. The menacing Ahmadinejad is portrayed as pushing Iran in a bold new direction, developing nuclear weapons with plans to destroy Israel and evict America from the Middle East. Yet these dire assertions have only limited basis in reality. Halfway through his term, Ahmadinejad's foreign policy is not all that different from his reformist or pragmatic predecessors...
What causes the greatest alarm in capitals around the world is Ahmadinejad's persistent calls for Israel to be "wiped off the map." Despite the disavowal of Iran's diplomats, such incendiary rhetoric - frequently edging toward anti-Semitism - has been the mainstay of the theocratic regime's discourse. However, such rhetoric conceals more than it reveals. Tehran does not seek eradication of Israel, but sees such slogans as a means of gaining the acclaim of the Arab street. It is the tragedy of the Middle East today that such despicable rhetoric is a pathway to political popularity.
So is Ahmadinejad the Hitler of the Middle East? No. To miscalculate that and go to war with Iran could be a blunder that would make Iraq's conflict look like a training exercise. If you look back at the Iran-Iraq war, you'll get a picture of how the fighting would go. Iraq back then had a technological advantage over Iran, but Iran had numbers. The war was costly to both sides, but Iran towards the end gained the upper hand. Sheer numbers with a focus of martyrdom brought the war to their advantage.
To go to war with Iran would re-energize the nation, whose history is ingrained in them. It's the image of
America's involvement in the former Shah of Iran's government that will rekindle their fervor of the revolution. Invading would bring back memories and give the nation reason to assemble and attack without hesitation.
Now I don't doubt our military capabilities. I believe we can defeat an Iranian army. However, it's what happens after that is tricky. You could say that most of Iraq wanted to dispose of the dictator Saddam Hussein, could the same be said with the Iranian people towards it's government. Would the populace work with us? Would they erase the religious influence in their society? Or would it end up like the current Iranian government?
What about the insurgency that would follow the toppling of the Iranian government? You'd be sure to expect a stronger more unified insurgency than in Iraq. It is the tragic outcomes of the war that would make it a hard decision to make. Yet if it does come to war, let there be solid evidence this time. Because if there isn't, it's hard to say it would be worth it.
Iran: Ticking time bomb or a dud?