Next week, one of the most expensive films in recent memory will be released. From the mind of James Cameron comes a Sci-fi action adventure tale of planetary conquest. The budget? Depending on your source, from $237 million to $500 million. It is hard nowadays to not see a trailer or spot for the film when you turn on the television or go to the theatre. Yet will the massive amounts of advertisement draw people in? Remember, word of mouth is killer nowadays for films, and an instant hit can become a dud in a matter of weeks. The best model I can think of, with a large worldwide release similar to Avatar is the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise. The second of the franchise, Dead Man's Chest, only grossed $423,315,812 in the United States (okay, maybe I shouldn't use the word "only"). The international gross for the film? $642,344,000. Which leads me to believe that Avatar's success will be dependent on its success worldwide (I'm also assuming the $500 million budget figure is correct). When looking at Google Trends in comparison to the Pirates of the Caribbean films, Avatar seems to have received a good amount of buzz. Yet with graphics equivalent to video game cutscenes, I have a feeling it's going to bomb. Avatar is no Titantic. Avatar is no Terminator 2. Will I be proven wrong? Probably. Its competition for the rest of the month is pretty weak. The only film I could see possibly knocking Avatar off from the number one spot is Sherlock Holmes . There is also the escapism factor, which will certainly help the film. Yet with no big names to carry the film, like Johnny Depp or Christian Bale, I doubt it will be a success.
It's a wait and see game from here on out, will James Cameron prove me wrong?
Update: Be sure to check my post "Eating Crow..."